Canada is gearing up to reveal its Immigration Levels Plan for 2026–2028 in November 2025, following extensive nationwide consultations that wrapped up in August. The upcoming plan is anticipated to boost the country’s immigration targets, amidst ongoing discussions regarding housing, infrastructure, and population expansion.
Current Targets and Provincial Adjustments
For the 2024–2026 period, Canada’s 2025 immigration target was initially set at 395,000 permanent residents, later adjusted to 401,418 following additional Provincial Nominee Program (PNP) allocations. The Francophone immigration target outside Quebec stands at 8.5% (29,325 newcomers).
Political and Economic Balancing
While the federal government had previously scaled back more ambitious objectives to address public concerns related to housing and healthcare, provinces have persistently advocated for larger quotas. The forthcoming plan is poised to empower provinces with increased control over selection through expanded PNP allocations.
Shifts in Immigration Streams
The 2025 plan reduced quotas for business, family, and Atlantic immigration streams to prioritize economic and provincial programs:
- Business immigration: decreased to approximately 2,000.
- Family class: 94,500 (constituting 22% of the total).
- Atlantic Immigration Program: around 5,000.
Reasons for Anticipated Increase
Analysts foresee heightened targets due to:
- Shortages of labor in healthcare, construction, and technology sectors.
- An aging population and low fertility rates.
- Provincial demands for larger allocations.
- Commitments to elevate Francophone immigration outside Quebec to 12% by 2029.
Projection for 2026
The base target for 2026 is set at 380,000, but with fresh PNP allocations, it could escalate to 410,000–415,000. The Francophone proportion is projected to reach 9.5% (31,350 newcomers).
Temporary Immigration
Canada is also imposing restrictions on temporary residents. New arrivals are estimated at 673,650 in 2025, decreasing to 516,600 in 2026. The government aims to diminish non-permanent residents to below 5% of the total population by 2027, although numerous institutions are advocating for increased flexibility.
Outlook
The IRCC’s November announcement is expected to highlight a strategy of “higher but smarter”:
- Elevated overall targets.
- Enhanced provincial autonomy.
- Strengthened pathways from temporary to permanent residency.
Canada is unlikely to reduce its immigration levels; instead, the 2026–2028 plan is anticipated to reaffirm immigration as a fundamental driver of population and economic expansion.